International Security Forum 2017

cisgbonn Allgemein

German Security Policy after the Federal Election
Challenges – Capabilities – Strategies
Wednesday, October 25, 2017

 

Executive Summary, International Security Forum

“If we want things to stay as they are, things will have to change.”[1]

© Volker Lannert

Uncertainty marks the present and future of European and transatlantic security. What kind of world order will emerge from the current crisis of liberal multilateralism? Can Europe and the U.S. move forward together in spite of major internal conflict? American and European experts and practitioners of foreign and security policy convened on October 25, 2017, in Bonn for the second International Security Forum to discuss these and other pressing issues in international affairs. Current and former staff of the German and American foreign and defense ministries, members of German, French, Hungarian, American and Russian research institutions as well as German policy-makers on the regional and national level debated the future of German and American security policy and its repercussions for an international order in three lively sessions.

© Volker Lannert

Are we living in the final days of the liberal order, or is our current system more resilient than doomsayers suggest? While some experts at the Forum viewed reduced American engagement in world affairs as a potential trigger for a transformation towards unilateralism and protectionism, others maintained that the institutions and rules embodying liberal multilateralism are tried and tested enough to withstand current pressures. Other participants likened the current state of the international order to a driving car with a cracked windshield: a fully functional construction whose entire structural integrity could fail if a major shock occurred. And crises with potential for escalation are manifold: from North Korea to Iran or the Middle East, the stability of several world regions is currently at a tipping point.

Participants agreed: in such uncertain times, resilience is key. Not all risks and threats can be deterred or managed, so the ability to absorb shocks and respond to crises, be they economic, political or military, is more important than ever. The gradual withdrawal of the U.S. under President Trump from the world stage means that Europe, in particular, will have to enhance its capabilities for international engagement. No matter how successful a leader Europe might become in international affairs, however, the maintenance of a peaceful international order will continue to depend on the U.S. – for better or for worse.

© Volker Lannert

So what can and must Europe do next? European security and defense policy remain in dire need of reform, although recent advances in European defense cooperation, which attracted much attention throughout the Forum, might just ring in a new chapter in regional integration. Still, not all rhetoric becomes a reality, and long-standing obstacles such as diverging strategic priorities or preferences for national over regional defense will have to be addressed in the near future. While Europe’s material capabilities must be enhanced to lend the continent geopolitical weight and credibility as an international leader, a common defense policy, however difficult it may be to achieve, might be just as important for greater European autonomy and unity in international relations.

© Volker Lannert

All participants stressed that the U.S. would nevertheless remain indispensable for European security. As a consequence, several experts suggested that Europe – and Germany in particular – would be well-advised to make itself an indispensable ally to its American partner, emphasizing that more integrated European defense policies and structures should still be fully complementary to NATO. Other proposals proved to be more controversial. Above all, the 2 percent defense spending target remains a point of contention between Europe and the U.S. While Americans underlined that the call for greater European defense spending is near-ubiquitous among U.S. policy-makers, Europeans suggested that the American leadership should perhaps adopt a more differentiated understanding of defense spending.

Ongoing crises as well as longer-term power shifts, especially towards the Asia-Pacific, render the necessity for a strong transatlantic security partnership with a strengthened European pole all the more apparent. Experts’ advice at the Bonn International Security Forum is clear: If Europe and the U.S. want to preserve the cornerstones of the liberal order of the past decades, both will have to shoulder greater individual responsibility, become more creative in addressing global crises, and adapt the transatlantic alliance to sustain it for the future.
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[1] Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa, The Leopard, London: Fontana, 1963.


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AGENDA

9.00-9.05

Introduction: James D. Bindenagel
Henry-Kissinger-Professor and Head of the Center for International Security and
Governance (CISG)

9.05-9.10

Welcoming Remarks: Michael Hoch
Rector, University of Bonn

9.10-9.25

Opening Remarks: Armin Laschet
Minister President, North Rhine-Westphalia


SESSION I: The Future of World Order

• Multilateralism, international institutions
• NATO, transatlantic relations
• Europe and Germany’s role

9.25-9.30

Impulse Statement: James Goldgeier
Dean, School of International Service, American University

9.30-9.35

Impulse Statement: Kori Schake
Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Former director for Defense
Strategy and Requirements on the National Security Council

9.35-9.40

Impulse Statement: Kim R. Holmes
Acting Senior Vice President, Research, Heritage Foundation
Former Assistant Secretary of State

9.40-9.45

Impulse Statement: Anna Maria Kellner
Policy Advisor on German and European foreign and security policy
Friedrich-Ebert-Foundation

9.45-9.50

Impulse Statement: Christoph Schwegmann
Senior Defence Advisor, Policy Planning Staff
German Federal Foreign Office

9.50-11.30

Open Discussion
Chair: Jackson Janes
President of the American Institute for Contemporary
German Studies


The Future of European Security Policy

11.30-11.50

Speaker: Holger Mey
Head of Advanced Concepts, Airbus Group
Honorary Professor, University of Cologne

11.50-12.30

Open Discussion
Chair: Karl Kaiser
Associate, Transatlantic Initiative, Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

12.30-1.30

Lunch break and group photo


SESSION II: German and U.S. Security Policy in a changing World Order

• German national security and defense
• US security policy and the American perspective on Germany
• Turmoil in the Middle East and rising tensions in Asia
• Russia, Europe and U.S. security
• Trump and security policy

1.30-1.35

Impulse Statement: Martin Krüger
Directorate for Political Affairs,
Federal Ministry of Defence

1.35-1.40

Impulse Statement: Stephen Hedger
Former Deputy Chief of Staff to the Secretary of Defense,
Chief of Staff to the Deputy Secretary of Defense

1.40-1.45

Impulse Statement: Jana Puglierin
Head of Program, Center for European Policy Studies
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

1.45-1.50

Impulse Statement: Jeffrey Rathke
Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Europe Program
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS)

1.50-1.55

Impulse Statement: Klaus Scharioth
Dean of the Mercator Fellowship on International Affairs,
German Ambassador (ret.) to the United States

1.55-3.30

Open Discussion
Chair: James D. Bindenagel
Henry-Kissinger-Professor and Head of the Center for International
Security and Governance (CISG)


3.30-4.00

Closing remarks: Karl Kaiser
Associate, Transatlantic Initiative, Belfer Center for Science and
International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

4.00-

Reception


Partners:

Deutsche Atlantische Gesellschaft e.V.

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik e.V.

Amerika Haus NRW e.V.

U.S. Consulate General Düsseldorf

Supporters:

Liaison Office Internationale Wissenschaft der Stadt Bonn

Peter-Klöckner-Stiftung